President Bush has said that “Americans are addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world.” In the United States we have 5 percent of the world’s population and consume 25 percent of the world’s non-renewable resources. Oil is the world’s primary source of energy. When the supply of oil slows or stops it will impact lighting and all energy-consuming products. How much time do we have before this affects us?

Light fixtures are appliances. For some of us in this industry it is difficult to reduce them to that level. The Federal government calls them appliances and they do fit the description even though the most creative fixtures seem more special than to be lumped into the same category as toasters. In fact lighting fixtures often consume the largest percentage of electric utility bills. Estimates for commercial facilities are that lighting accounts for about 40 percent of the overall electric bill and industrial applications use about 25 percent. This makes lighting a primary focus for maximizing energy savings.

The world has 40 years of oil left according to many industry specialists including Nick Butler, VP of Strategy & Policy Development at British Petroleum (BP). Globally, we will use over 1000 barrels a second in 2006. Most of this is refined into gasoline and some power plants use oil for fuel to generate electricity. According to Chevron it took us 125 years to go through the first trillion barrels of oil and we will use next trillion in 30. Oil Geologists estimate that the earth has 1.2 trillion barrels in known reserves. Allowing for some new oil reserves being found this figure is consistent with the 40-year depletion estimate.

The U.S. Department of Energy released the “Annual Energy Outlook 2005 with Projections to 2025” in August of 2005. They estimate that U.S. electricity consumption will double in the three decades from 1995 levels to 2025. Production remains fairly stable so the difference will be made up by imports, if we can get enough to meet our needs. In 1970 we imported about 10 percent of our oil; now we import about 70 percent. In 1984 North America had 13.4 percent of the worlds reserves and in 2004 that had dropped to 5.1 percent. We are rapidly gobbling up what resources we have and ensuring our dependence on other countries.

All renewable energy currently provides just 2.5 percent of world demand with projections by BP that in 2020 renewable sources may rise to 3 percent. This includes all wind, solar, geothermal, hydro and biomass. Alternatives such as ethanol use so much fossil energy during production that one study from Cornell University showed a 29 percent net loss. Hydrogen offers significant hope but whether it will be a dry form, liquid or gas that we will distribute remains unresolved, as do many of the safety and storage concerns. Estimates to change the distribution infrastructure from oil to a hydrogen-based energy supply are that it will take a minimum of two decades if we have an aggressive and focused global effort. That can only begin when remaining issues are resolved and international cooperation of the magnitude required would set a precedent.

In 1956, Marion Hubbert was a geophysicist working for Shell Oil in Houston. He developed a mathematical formula to determine “Peak Oil,” which is when we reach the peak of oil production, essentially when we have used half of the oil ever available to us. His equation was applied to the U.S. and to the world situation based on population growth, the rate of new reserves being found and energy consumption curves. Mr. Hubbert declared that the U.S. would have used ½ of their oil by the 1970’s and that the world would reach “Peak Oil” in the decade between 2000 and 2010. Most geologists now agree with his timeframe and his formula is still used. The scary part of his prediction is that the real crisis begins when the world hits the halfway point in oil consumption. At this point most of the easy to process (light sweet crude) and easy to access oil will be gone. When the “low hanging apples” are picked it gets more difficult and time-consuming. We will have to drill deeper wells, go into jungle and arctic areas and extract oil from tar sand. This increases costs and slows the gathering and refining process. Oil wells in the ocean in the 1970’s were often 700 to 800 feet below the ocean floor. Chevron wells are now over 2 miles deep and a new well in the Gulf of Mexico set the depth record at 26,695 feet deep. As accessing the oil becomes more difficult, the world is facing population growth and an approximate 200 million new customers each year for commercial energy use. We are already competing for energy with other countries. U.S. population in 2000 was 281 million and in 2100 it is estimated to be 571 million, over double. World population is 6.5 billion, an increase from 6 billion in 1999. Our children and their children will have dramatically different lives and to help delay and minimize the impact we need to increase the efficiency of our energy-consuming appliances. Lighting fixtures, sources, ballasts, optics and controls will all need to change to meet higher efficiency levels and the energy legislation now in place as a result of this upcoming crisis. Commodity products will not work to achieve the new energy regulations. Only high efficiency products can meet the energy consumption levels now mandated by law.

Complex forces are accelerating change in the lighting industry. Understanding these issues is critical for success. It is increasingly important to build relationships with individuals and companies that understand and can communicate the relevant industry shifts. There is immeasurable value in education and information that keeps us sharp and proactive. Cooper Lighting is the industry leader in bringing this value to our customers. We are members of the U.S. Green Building Council and the International Dark-Sky Association and a major contributor to the Illuminating Engineering Society and other organizations pivotal to our industry. Our SOURCE Educational Center and website provide updated and extensive information. We are addicted to oil and as with any addiction, breaking free takes effort. Let Cooper Lighting provide the help you need to understand and secure your company’s energy future.